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While election campaign, Donald Trump pledged to avoid costly and frequently catastrophic overseas wars like those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This promise was a key component of his non-interventionist “America first” platform. Yet within months his inauguration, US forces carried out attacks in Yemen and Iran. Looking southward, the president warned to take control of the Panama Canal. Currently, the Pentagon is preparing for potential operations against alleged “terrorist” narco-trafficking organizations within the borders of Colombia and Mexico. Of greatest immediate concern is a possible fresh administration attempt to enforce a new government in Venezuela.

Venezuela's Response and Escalating Tensions

Venezuela's president, the nation's socialist strongman leader, believes that this campaign is already under way. He says that Washington is waging an “undeclared war” on his nation following multiple lethal strikes against Venezuelan vessels in international waters. Trump last week informed Congress that America is engaged in hostilities with drug cartels. He states, without providing evidence, that the attacked vessels transported drugs bound for the US – and that Maduro is responsible. He has issued a $50m bounty on Maduro’s head.

Latin American governments are nervously watching a significant American armed forces buildup around Venezuela, including naval vessels, F-35 combat aircraft, a submarine and thousands of marines. These formidable resources are not much use in anti-drug operations. However they could be deployed offensively, or to support commando operations and bombing runs. Recently, Venezuela alleged the US of unauthorized entry by several F-35s. The president says he is readying a state of emergency to “protect our people” in case Venezuela comes under attack by the American empire.

Questioning the Motives Behind the Actions

What is Trump doing? Narcotics trafficking is a serious problem – but taking lives arbitrarily in international waters, although common and hard to hold accountable, remains illegal. Moreover, the UN state most of illegal drugs entering the US comes from Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is mostly not trafficked via Venezuela. The president, a known avoided military service, likes to act the tough commander-in-chief. He is now seeking to expel Venezuelan migrants, a large number originally fled to America to escape economic measures he himself enforced. Some analysts suggest he desires Venezuela’s abundant energy and natural wealth.

It’s true that Trump and his former national security adviser, attempted to oust Maduro in 2019 in what Caracas claimed an overthrow attempt. Additionally, the president's recent electoral victory was widely denounced as fraudulent. Given a free choice, the people would likely vote out him. And, clashing ideologies play a role, too. Maduro, poor successor to Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian revolution, is an affront to Trump’s imperial idea of a US-dominated western hemisphere, where the 1823 Monroe doctrine rules again and neoliberal capitalism operates unchecked.

Lack of Clear Strategy

Yet considering his inept blundering in other major international matters, the most likely explanation for Trump’s actions is that, typically, he hasn’t got a clue about his actions – in Venezuela or the region as a whole. No strategy exists. He throws his weight about, takes rash decisions, stokes fear of foreigners and bases policy based on if he “likes” foreign counterparts. In 2019, when the Venezuelan leader in trouble, Trump blinked. Today, large-scale armed involvement in the country is still improbable. More probable is a heightened pressure campaign of destabilisation, penalties, naval attacks, and air and commando raids.

Instead of weakening and marginalizing the regime, Trump could bring about the exact opposite. The president is already exploiting the situation to seize dictatorial “special powers” and mobilize public opinion behind patriotic calls for national solidarity. Trump’s aggression towards other left-leaning Latin American nations – like Colombia – and presumptuous support for conservative leaders in Argentina and El Salvador – is spurring pushback across the continent, too. Most governments detest the thought of a return to the past era of American meddling in Washington’s “back yard”.

Regional Reaction and Diplomatic Setbacks

The administration's effort to use punitive tariffs and restrictions to strong-arm Brazil to granting amnesty to its disgraced conservative leader Jair Bolsonaro failed spectacularly last month. Massive protests took to the streets of Brazilian urban centers to defend what they rightly saw as an attack on national independence and rule of law. The popularity of the new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, increased. “We are not, and will never become, a dependent state,” he declared. The Brazilian leader effectively told the US president, essentially, to get lost. Then, at their meeting during the United Nations summit, the American leader backed off and was conciliatory.

The perception of a significant regression in inter-American ties increases ineluctably. The White House sees the region mainly as a security threat, associating it with drug trafficking, organised crime and incoming migration,” a noted expert cautioned earlier this year. “The US approach is fundamentally negative, prioritizing unilateral action and control rather than cooperation,” she added, stating: Latin America is being treated less as a peer and more as a sphere of influence to be dominated in line with US strategic interests.”

Hawkish Officials and Escalating Language

The president's hawkish advisers contribute to the problem: notably a senior official, administration deputy chief of staff, and the secretary of state, a former lawmaker from Florida serving as top diplomat and national security adviser. For Rubio, a longtime critic of leftwing rulers in Cuba and Nicaragua, the Venezuelan leader is unfinished business. Defending the naval strikes, he stated: Seizures are ineffective. The solution is when you blow them up … This will continue.” From the chief diplomat, these are strong words.

Long-term Consequences

Trump’s attempts to revive the role of regional regional enforcer, copying former president Theodore Roosevelt – a big stick-wielding frequent meddler – are backward-looking, risky and counterproductive. In the future, the main beneficiary will most likely be Beijing, a growingly influential player, economic partner and leading member of the international bloc countries. While America burns its bridges across the world, the administration is helping China great again.